Who wins Liiga 2026–27?
30.9%
Tappara
Tappara win the title in 30.9% of 20,000 simulated seasons. The most likely champion, far from a sure thing.
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Tappara- Playoffs
- 99.9%
- Title
- 30.9%
- Relegation
- <0.1%
| # | Team | Pts | Playoffs | Title | Releg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tappara | 121.7 | 99.9% | 30.9% | <0.1% |
| 2 |  JYP | 118.4 | 99.8% | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| 3 |  Lukko | 111.2 | 98.6% | 9.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 |  KooKoo | 110.6 | 98.2% | 10.1% | 0.4% |
| 5 |  Ilves | 109.9 | 98.0% | 11.0% | 0.4% |
| 6 |  KalPa | 108.2 | 97.3% | 7.3% | 0.5% |
| 7 |  Kiekko-Espoo | 99.5 | 88.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| 8 |  Jokerit | 97.5 | 85.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| 9 |  SaiPa | 95.7 | 81.8% | 1.4% | 5.6% |
| 10 |  Kärpät | 95.7 | 81.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% |
| 11 |  Ässät | 92.8 | 74.7% | 0.9% | 8.5% |
| 12 |  HIFK | 89.6 | 65.6% | 1.2% | 13.7% |
| 13 |  Pelicans | 85.5 | 51.2% | 0.5% | 22.3% |
| 14 |  TPS | 79.8 | 32.0% | <0.1% | 39.3% |
| 15 |  HPK | 79.8 | 32.0% | <0.1% | 39.4% |
| 16 |  Sport | 69.5 | 9.3% | <0.1% | 74.5% |
| 17 |  Jukurit | 66.4 | 5.4% | <0.1% | 82.4% |
Pts is the average regular-season points total. Playoffs, Title and Releg. are how often the team makes the top 12, wins the championship, or finishes in the bottom three across 20,000 simulated seasons. The thick rules mark the playoff line (after 12th) and the relegation zone (from 15th).
How the forecast works
Built from players
Every player's history, including other leagues, becomes one comparable power projection. Team strength comes from the roster, so transfers show up before a game is played.
20,000 seasons
The full regular season and playoffs are played out 20,000 times, every game decided by the model's win probability. The odds are how often each outcome happened.
Checked against results
Tested on the last five seasons, the model called 61.1% of games right. It catches about 75% of home wins but only about 43% of upsets, which is why it shows odds, not picks.
Coming this season: in-season updates, team and player cards, then SHL, NL, DEL and Extraliga.
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