2026–2027

Liiga Season Forecast

Last updated · preseason forecast, 20,000 simulated seasons

Regular Season

Projected points, playoff odds, championship odds, and relegation odds, averaged across 20,000 simulated replays of the 2026/2027 Liiga regular season. Projected PTS is each team's average regular-season points total across every simulated replay. Playoffs % is how often they finish in the top 12 and qualify for the postseason. Cup % is how often they go all the way and win the championship (the full regular season and playoff bracket, chained together and replayed as one). Relegation % is how often they finish last 3 and go down to the B League.

#TeamProjected PTSPlayoffs %Cup %Relegation %
1Tappara121.799.9%30.9%<0.1%
2JYP118.499.8%16.3%<0.1%
3Lukko111.298.6%9.1%0.2%
4KooKoo110.698.2%10.1%0.4%
5Ilves109.998.0%11.0%0.4%
6KalPa108.297.3%7.3%0.5%
7Kiekko-Espoo99.588.9%3.5%2.9%
8Jokerit97.585.3%4.2%4.3%
9SaiPa95.781.8%1.4%5.6%
10Kärpät95.781.9%3.6%5.6%
11Ässät92.874.7%0.9%8.5%
12HIFK89.665.6%1.2%13.7%
13Pelicans85.551.2%0.5%22.3%
14TPS79.832.0%<0.1%39.3%
15HPK79.832.0%<0.1%39.4%
16Sport69.59.3%<0.1%74.5%
17Jukurit66.45.4%<0.1%82.4%

Playoffs

Top 12 seeded from the simulated table. Seeds 5–12 open with a best-of-five 1st Round; seeds 1–4 bye to the best-of-seven Quarterfinals. Semifinals and the Final re-seed the survivors, best remaining vs. worst, the real Liiga format. Every game's winner is drawn from the two teams' power projections, the same number behind the regular-season standings; the whole bracket is replayed 20,000 times, and what's shown is the single most common path to champion.

1st Round
5Ilves3-2
12HIFK
6KalPa3-2
11Ässät
7Kiekko-Espoo3-2
10Kärpät
8Jokerit3-2
9SaiPa
Quarterfinals
1Tappara4-1
5Ilves
2JYP4-3
6KalPa
3Lukko4-3
7Kiekko-Espoo
4KooKoo4-3
8Jokerit
Semifinals
1Tappara4-1
4KooKoo
2JYP4-1
3Lukko
Final
2027 Liiga Finaalit
1Tappara4-3
2JYP

Bronze medal game: Lukko over KooKoo (most likely outcome; both semifinal losers play a single neutral-site game)

About and Methodology